05.03.2009
No less than 204 warships will be sold in the world between 2004 and 2013 for a total amount of $40.17 billion, with the number of new warships standing at 130 and worth $38.53 billion (83 ships worth $22.82 billion in 2001-2010), which amounts to 63% of the overall number of ships, or 95.9% of the total amount, an ARMS-Tass analysis published in the Rynki Vooruzheny N1 indicates.
The analysis is based on already confirmed orders as of January 1, 2013. Tenders called as of the beginning of 2009 for delivery before 2013 are separately presented.
Corvet and higher class surface ships are included in the combat surface ships category.
The combat surface ships category stands out for its large secondary market. Therefore, estimates have included deliveries of combat surface ships from the navies of exporter countries modernized to almost new and costing no less than $100 million. The leaders in this secondary market are the U.S., the Netherlands, Britain, Belgium, and Portugal. Russia entered the market with the modernization of the aircraft carrier
Admiral Gorshkov for the Indian Navy.
The international financial crisis could alter the picture as relates to cost overruns and even cuts in a number of programs.
In the first five-year period (2004-2008), 61 new ships were sold for $16 billion (30 ships worth $9.46 billion in 2001-2005). A slight increase is projected in the second five-year period (2009-2013) with 69 ships sold for $22.5 billion (52 ships worth $13.3 billion in 2006-2010), or 113.1% quantity-wise, and 140.3% cost-wise. Russia, China, and South Korea will all considerably increase their share of the market, while Germany, Britain and the Netherlands will see their share shrink.
In the first five-year period, average yearly demand in modern warships stood at 12 units (6 in 2001-2005). Demand increased to almost 14 units in the second five-year period (more than 10 units in 2006-2010), an indication of a rise in the demand for new ships. It is worth noticing here that projections for 2009-2013 are based on already confirmed orders and announced tenders. Given the fact that the amount of time that elapses between the signing of a contract and the delivery of the product is considerable, the correction to the market of combat surface ships for the period of 2009-2013 is bound to be insignificant. More important changes and redistributions in leading exporter positions are more likely to be a result of deliveries from exporter countries.
Germany leads in the market of new combat surface ships (26 units for worth $5.6 billion). Eighteen warships were sold for $3.6 billion in 2004-2008, while in the second five-year period 8 warships were sold for $2 billion.
France is in second place far behind Germany (16 ships worth $6 billion), with a stable enough orders book: in the first and second five-year periods it will export 8 ships.
Britain comes third (15 ships worth almost $3 billion). It sold 10 ships in the first five-year period for $1.6 billion and five ships are expected to be sold in the second five-year period for $1.3 billion.
The Netherlands are in fourth position (14 ships worth $3.6 billion). The country exported 9 ships in 2004-2008 for $2 billion, while it has orders for 5 ships worth $1.6 billion in its books for the second five-year period so far.
Russia comes fifth (13 ships sold for almost $8 billion). It sold $1.7 billion worth of ships in 2004-2008, while exports dramatically shot up in the second five-year period to 10 ships worth 6.2 billion. Russia has all chances of eclipsing the leader in this segment in the second five-year period.
Spain ranks sixth (10 ships sold for $4.1 billion). It exported 4 ships worth 1.9 billion in 2004-2008, and sales slightly increased to 6 ships worth $2.2 billion in the second five-year period.
China is seventh with eight
F-22P Jangwei-2 frigates sold to Pakistan.
The U.S. is in 8th place (7 ships sold for $1.6 billion). It exported 6 ships worth $1.1 billion in 2004-2008 and has 1 order worth $475 million in its books for the second five-year period.
South Korea comes ninth with sales of tank-landing ships (5 ships worth $450 million). It sold 3 ships worth $112 million in the first five-year period; and it the second, has orders for 2 ships worth $337 million. A concession was made in the analysis of the price bracket for South Korean ships; they are listed as budget versions, with a minimum package of armaments.
Italy comes tenth with 3 ships worth $ 309 million sold in the second five-year period.
Singapore is 11th and last on the list, with 2 tank-landing ships worth $277 million sold in the second five-year period.
Source:
Translation:
RusNavy.com
